Young Researchers' Forum

Sakshi Tikmani

Japan and Taiwan, two important actors of East Asia, are subject to the current geopolitical alert, since the commencement of the “war of words” between the Japanese and the Chinese administration. What once started in 1895 as a Sino - Japanese War, still appears to continue in 2025 only transitioning to a verbal war. As said by the former Prime Minister of Japan Shinzo Abe, “A Taiwan emergency is a Japanese emergency, and therefore an emergency for the Japan - US Alliance.” 

Historically, Japan had ruled over Taiwan for 50 years during the period of 1895 - 1945 as a result of China’s defeat from Japan in the First Sino - Japanese War, which was later returned to China after Japan’s defeat in the Second World War 1945. Due to the historical presence of Japan in the island of Taiwan, the latter holds certain commonality with Japan mainly influenced by the Taisho Democracy, pluralistic society, advanced educational system as well as various other soft powers. In 1949, China divided itself into communists and nationalists i.e. PRC (China) and ROC (Taiwan) respectively, which was accepted by Japan in 1972 through the Japan - China Joint Communique - where Japan respected the ‘One China Policy’ which claimed Taiwan as a part of China. However, since then till now, Japan has not accepted Taiwan as a separate country despite Taiwan having a significant importance in its defense and economic security. This research article aims to study the reasons for the same. 

Japan has held strong interest in Taiwan since it was under the security of the US post the second World War, and its anti - communist ideologies. However, because of the same reasons of US security, Japan became a subject of target for China. The rising military of China became a point of scrutiny for Japan, and Beijing’s rise also resulted in dominance in the East China Sea, its submarines and air jets in the Japanese water and sky and missile tests near and around Taiwan. For Japan, Taiwan is of military interest as it is only 111km away from Japan’s southernmost point, which means an annexation of the island will lead to exposing of key Japanese sea routes. However, the irony occurs in the fact that despite Japan wanting Taiwan to stay neutral and not join China, it still has not formally recognized Taiwan as a country separate from China. 

One of the reasons for the same could be the power that China holds over the world. Being one of the super powers of the world, it is easier for China to make other countries realize its importance as compared to a small island territory like Taiwan. Japan shares a very crucial relation with China as its largest trading partner. Additionally, China is the largest investment destination for Japanese companies. Based on the reports published by the Ministry of External Affairs of Japan, total trade between the two countries in 2024 was USD 292.6 billion. China’s share of Japan’s import and export is 22.5% and 17.6% respectively, with a total coming to 20.2% (2024). Additionally, Japan’s direct investment in China in 2024 was USD 3.4 billion - a surge of 6.1% since 2023. This data adheres to the fact that if the two countries decide to not engage with each other economically, then not only will the economy of the countries concerned will be affected but also of the other nations as well. 

Another reason pertaining to the lack of motivation for formal recognition of Taiwan is also because of China and Japan’s history. On 17th November, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of People’s Republic of China posted certain reasons pertaining to China’s displeasure towards the statement made by the new Prime Minister of Japan Sanae Takaichi. According to the statement given by the spokesperson of China’s Foreign Ministry Mao Ning, China and Japan had signed four political documents. Among them, one clearly states that Taiwan province is a part of the territory of the People’s Republic of China and claimed the Treaty of San Francisco as illegal. Secondly, in 1972 when the two countries signed the Sino - Japanese Joint Statement, Japan agreed to the three articles mentioned in it amongst which Article 2 stated that Government of Japan recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legal Government of China, and Article 3 mentioning that Taiwan is inalienable part of People’s Republic of China. In 1978 the two countries signed the Treaty of Peace and Friendship and in 1998 they released the China - Japan Joint Declaration on Building a Partnership of Friendship and Cooperation for Peace and Development, where Japan continued maintaining the same stance with respect to Taiwan, as before. Additionally, in 2008, the China - Japan Joint Statement on All - round Promotion of Strategic Relation of Mutual Benefit stipulated clearly in Article 5 that the Japanese side reiterated that it will continue to abide by its position on the Taiwan question stated in the Sino - Japanese Joint Statement. 

Japan has a crucial decision to make whether to respect its agreements and commitments made to China, opposing to which could lead to an economic effect. Japan is a close ally of the United States with visible US military present in the Japanese borders, making it crucial for Japan to protect its military strategy from China. Additionally, China’s acquisition of Taiwan will create a hurdle for the United States due to its interest in the Indo – Pacific, and Taiwan is the only island connecting Japan, Philippines and South China Sea. A Chinese acquisition of Taiwan will only lead to an increased regional dominance. Hence, Japan should make decisive actions on whether to protect itself from future military vulnerability or maintaining peaceful diplomatic ties with China. 

ENDNOTES: 

1. https://www.thinkchina.sg/politics/whats-behind-shinzo-abes-outburst-over-taiwan-strait-issue

2. https://www.mofa.go.jp/a_o/c_m2/page23e_000652.html 

3. https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/xw/fyrbt/202511/t20251117_11754686.html 

4. https://www.cfr.org/blog/why-taiwan-important-united-states 

5. https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/624548 

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Kaustubh Tripathi

South Caucasus, also known as the Trans-Caucasus region, situated South of the Caucasian mountain range of Europe, comprises of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Historically, the region was competed for establishing influence amongst the Ottoman and the Persian empires.

However, in the early 20th century, with the Russian revolution and the wave of Communism, the region eventually became a part of the Soviet Union. Upon the demise of the Soviet Union, the region continued to be under the hegemony of Russian Federation, reflected in the Political culture and functioning styles of the State institutions of the three South Caucasian countries.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which started in the year 2022, however, changed the regional dynamics. While Russia was busy in dealing with the Ukrainian forces and the sanctions imposed by the West, its relative absence as a consequence left the region with no superior power which resulted in the Power vacuum of the regional order. This created avenues for regional and extra-regional powers to establish their Strategic influence in the contested geopolitical space —rich in energy and situated at the critical geopolitical crossroads joining Europe and Asia. Consequently, the constituent countries of the South Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia recalibrated their Strategic calculus and revised their geopolitical vision by diversifying their foreign policies. Türkiye, China, India, Pakistan and latest entrant, USA thus became the new variables in the regional geopolitical equation. 

Russia invaded the Ukrainian territory with its “Special Military Operation” as a dominant regional power, but its involvement and further military and economic overstretch declined its capacity to influence the unfolding of geopolitical events in the South Caucasus. The South Caucasus region, largely known to the world due to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hitherto managed with the Russian diplomatic, military and energy trade as the means, was left with no effective Russian presence. Nagorno-Karabakh thus got militarily resolved in favour of Azerbaijan with the help of Turkish military support and Azerbaijan emerged as more assertive and autonomous power in the region. It challenged the Russian hegemony more consistently than Armenia or Georgia, and helped Ukraine with humanitarian aid in the wake of the Russian attack. Also, it unilaterally revised the Russian-mediated 2020 ceasefire and took advantage of Russia’s weakness finalizing its territorial integrity in 2023. In turn, Russia’s dependence on Azerbaijan increased in terms of energy and diplomatic & economic link to the West Asian region[1]. 

Armenia, on the other hand, which had Russian military support, suspended its CSTO participation based on the premise that Russia failed to provide any effective security to Armenia in the wake of Azerbaijani offensive in 2020[2]. The public perception in Armenia vis-a-vis Russia also deteriorated sharply in a short span of time. Here, Russia’s old policy of ‘controlled instability’ backfired and as a result, destroyed Armenian trust in Russia. 

As far as Georgia is concerned, since it is has vulnerabilities regarding the conflicts in the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and being well aware of the fact that Russia holds leverage over Georgia, latter maintained a very cautious approach where it did not impose any sanctions on Russia. The domestic political environment of Georgia post 2024 elections went in favour of the pro-Russian forces. To add to it, the economic incentives which Georgia derives out of Russian incentives also prevented Georgia to diverge against Russia. 

In the wake of Russian entrenchment in the Ukrainian theatre, Türkiye found an avenue to employ its assertive diplomacy and leverage ethnic affinities with Azerbaijan. To that effect, Türkiye not only helped Azerbaijan with Military and Intelligence support to capture the Nagorno-Karabakh region and get rid of the ethnic Armenians in the region but also signed Shusha declaration in 2022 with Azerbaijan, reflecting Turkish-Azerbaijani realignment in the region. 

The Chinese involvement on the other hand in the South Caucasus grew with weakened Russian influence. China viewed the region as a critical, geopolitically potent space which holds immense significance for furthering Chinese Strategic footprint in the region. Although China remains cautious and avoids taking sides, largely investing in infrastructure and trade connectivity with an objective of structural reformation of the region and forging South Caucasus-Chinese interdependence[3]. 

India, a substantial South Asian player, also saw an opportunity in the South Caucasus to gain Strategic footing in order to look beyond its neighborhood, thus shaping its ‘trans-regional approach’ in foreign policy strategy. It employs niche diplomacy, in areas where it possesses relative advantage — like arms manufacturing, Pharmaceuticals and Information Technology sector. India’s approach majorly focuses Armenia, which is geopolitically vulnerable given Russia’s preoccupation with Ukraine and Turkish-Azerbaijani axis which encircles Armenia in a tough situation. However, India’s presence in Caspian Sea basin — which is rich in energy and Indian tourism still reasonably decent in Azerbaijan, illustrates India’s cautious political posturing and policymaking.

Pakistan, on the other hand, as a consequence of Indian strategic alignment with Armenia, entered the South Caucasian geopolitics to balance India, aligning itself with Türkiye-Azerbaijan axis, polarizing the regional order[4]. Pakistani enthusiasm can be seen as an attempt to establish itself as a prominent Islamic Nation-State globally, thereby also imposing South Asian equations upon the South Caucasus geopolitical calculus. 

USA, under President Trump has reconciled Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict and proposed TRIPP — Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, joining Armenia and Azerbaijan through the Nakhchivan exclave. The American objective here seems more at isolating Iran, which has the only land route to reach Europe through Armenia. Tehran is apprehensive of the possible American control of the route and could possibly leverage its ethnic linkages with Azerbaijan to regain its influence and counterbalance American involvement. 

With multiple interests at play and regionally polarized inter-state relations, energy rich geography and ethnic plurality rife with conflicts having roots in the past century, it demands a careful, well-negotiated and visionary Strategic outlook to navigate the region towards trust-building, establishing long-term peace and forging a path for prosperity and secure future, in political, economic as well as cultural terms[5]. 

Footnotes:

[1] Brusylovska, O., & Maistrenko, Y. (2024). Russia in the Politics of South Caucasus countries after 2022. Political Studies and International Relations, 5(1), 14-28.

[2] Aleksanyan, L. (2021). Foreign Policy of the South Caucasian Countries: Results and New Challenges. Central Asia and the Caucasus, Volume 22 No. 4.

[3] Fallahi, E., & Shafiee, N. (2023). Assessment of China’s China’s strategy in the South Caucasus: The cluster approach and BRI linkages. Central Eurasia Studies Review, 6(2), 47-62.

[4] Rauf, S., & Tariq, M. (2023). India and Pakistan’s growing engagement in the South Caucasus. Journal of Eurasian Studies, 10(2), 98-113. 

[5] Iskandarov, K., & Gawliczek, P. (2020). The new Great Game in the South Caucasus. Journal of Scientific papers, Volume 10, Issue 1.